...Markets. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5...

来自 : www.oalib.com/references/20297 发布时间：2021-03-25

ABSTRACT: In 2016, the performance of Capital markets inAfrica experienced a downward trend. Notable among them were Zambia, Ghana andNigeria (http://www.african-markets.com/). The Lusaka Securities Exchange (LuSE) share price index was the worstperformer year-to-date, down 26.83% in local currency. Among the contributingfactors cited were commodity prices as the country relies on copper for morethan 70% of its export revenue and had therefore suffered from commodity pricesplunged which led to weakened currencies and widened budget shortfalls (http://www.african-markets.com/). Although the contributing factors are known, their impact on theZambian stock market is not known. This study was an attempt to establish theimpact of commodity prices and macroeconomic factors on the stock marketreturns. Like in similar studies, Nordin etal. (2014) and Alam Uddin (2009), we used Auto regressionDistribution Lag and Cointegration analysis and the Vector Error Correctionmodel on the variables (stock price index, copper price, oil price, interestrates, and exchange rates) for the period 2004-2016. The findings of the study revealed Interest rates, exchange rates, copperand Oil price jointly have the long and short Run impact on the Lusaka StockMarket, but individually, only interest rates and copper prices had a significantlong term impact on the stock market, but in the short run only Copper andExchange rates had an immediate impact on the stock market. One importantpolicy implication of this study is that it will alert the authorities and theinvestors on the impact of commodity prices, interest rate, and the exchangerate on the Lusaka Securities Exchange stock market performance.